Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 46.98%. A draw had a probability of 28.41% and a win for Estudiantes Río Cuarto had a probability of 24.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%) , while for a Estudiantes Río Cuarto win it was 0-1 (9.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood.