Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 46.05%. A draw had a probability of 29.65% and a win for Aldosivi had a probability of 24.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.38%) and 2-1 (8.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.01%) , while for a Aldosivi win it was 0-1 (9.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.