Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 56.56%. A draw had a probability of 26.26% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 17.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.34%) and 2-1 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%) , while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (7.91%).