Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 42.1%. A draw had a probability of 30.72% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 27.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.42%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.74%) , while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.