Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macara win with a probability of 42.37%. A win for Alianza Atletico had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macara win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Alianza Atletico win was 0-1 (9.81%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.