Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Macara win with a probability of 37.25%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 30.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Macara win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.46%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Tigre win was 0-1 (12.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.