Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alianza Atletico win with a probability of 41.51%. A win for Macara had a probability of 30.92% and a draw had a probability of 27.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alianza Atletico win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.56%). The likeliest Macara win was 0-1 (9.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.