Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 62.94%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 13.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.65%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.51%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (6.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.