Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 60.12%. A draw had a probability of 23.95% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 15.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.86%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.11%) , while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (6.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.