Championship Gameweek 43
Derby
Apr 18, 2026 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • Jaydon Banel 22' goal
  • Oscar Fraulo 70' yellowcard
  • Sondre Langås 71' yellowcard
  • Max Johnston 86' yellowcard
  • Craig Forsyth 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Aidomo Emakhu 62'
  • yellowcard Jin-woo Jeon 62'
  • yellowcard Mark Harris 84'
  • yellowcard Will Vaulks 89'

Derby County vs Oxford United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Southampton 2 - 1 Derby
Goals scored
63
Top scorer
Patrick Agyemang

Oxford United

All competitions
Last game
Apr 11, 2026 3.00pm
Oxford Utd 2 - 0 Watford
Goals scored
41
Top scorer
Will Lankshear

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 53.92%. A draw had a probability of 25.79% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 20.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%) , while for a Oxford United win it was 0-1 (7.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood.

Result

Derby County 53.92% ▲ (+0.82)
Draw 25.79% ▼ (-0.07)
Oxford United 20.28% ▼ (-0.74)

Both Teams to Score: 

47.62% ▼ (-0.09)

Goals

Over 1.5 70.26% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 29.74% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 44.4% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 2.5 55.6% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 3.5 23.6% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 3.5 76.4% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 12.97% ▲ (+0.19)
Under 4.5 87.03% ▼ (-0.18)

First Half Winner

Derby County 39.43% ▲ (+3.50)
Draw 43.83% ▼ (-0.49)
Oxford United 16.74% ▼ (-3.02)

Team To Score First

Derby County 62.28% ▲ (+1.86)
No Goal 8.7% ▲ (+0.21)
Oxford United 29.02% ▼ (-2.08)

Corners

Over 8 64.4% ▼ (-1.74)
Equal 8 11.06% ▲ (+0.15)
Under 8 24.54% ▲ (+1.59)
Over 9 52.47% ▼ (-1.71)
Equal 9 11.92% ▼ (-0.06)
Under 9 35.6% ▲ (+1.75)
Over 10.5 40.77% ▼ (-1.49)
Under 10.5 59.23% ▲ (+1.49)

Derby County Goals

Over 1.5 46.15% ▲ (+0.40)
Under 1.5 53.85% ▼ (-0.40)
Over 2.5 20.72% ▲ (+0.44)
Under 2.5 79.28% ▼ (-0.44)
Over 3.5 7.47% ▲ (+0.30)
Under 3.5 92.53% ▼ (-0.30)

Oxford United Goals

Over 0.5 54.43% ▼ (-0.97)
Under 0.5 45.57% ▲ (+0.97)
Over 1.5 20.49% ▼ (-0.61)
Under 1.5 79.51% ▲ (+0.61)
Over 2.5 5.27% ▼ (-0.28)
Under 2.5 94.73% ▲ (+0.28)
Over 3.5 1.19% ▼ (-0.08)
Under 3.5 98.81% ▲ (+0.08)

Score analysis

Derby County 53.94%
Draw 25.8%
Oxford United 20.28%
Derby County
1-0 @ 13.87% ▲ (+0.24)
2-0 @ 10.37% ▲ (+0.19)
2-1 @ 9.69% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 5.19% ▲ (+0.10)
3-1 @ 4.89% ▲ (+0.05)
3-2 @ 2.47% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 7.46% ▲ (+0.30)
Total : 53.94%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.17% ▼ (-0.12)
0-0 @ 8.7% ▲ (+0.21)
2-2 @ 4.22% ▼ (-0.17)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 25.8%
Oxford United
0-1 @ 7.19% ▼ (-0.28)
1-2 @ 5.23% ▼ (-0.14)
0-2 @ 3.3% ▼ (-0.03)
1-3 @ 1.54% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.15% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 1.18% ▼ (-0.08)
Total : 20.28%

Head to Head

Championship
Oxford Utd
Oct 18, 2025 12.30pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Derby
Championship Gameweek 32
Derby
Feb 11, 2025 7.45pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Pride Park Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • Marcus Harness 90'+1' yellowcard
Championship Gameweek 11
Oxford Utd
Oct 22, 2024 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT The Kassam Stadium
Derby
  • Dane Scarlett 12' goal
  • Tyler Goodrham 19' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ben Osborn 38'
  • yellowcard Callum Elder 45'+1'
  • yellowcard Corey Taylor 50'
  • goal Nathaniel Mendez-Laing 55'
  • yellowcard Eiran Cashin 76'
League One Gameweek 25
Oxford Utd
Dec 29, 2023 7.45pm
2
3
HT : 2 1
FT The Kassam Stadium
Derby
  • Cameron Brannagan 2' goal
  • Cameron Brannagan 13' goal
  • James Beadle 67' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Joe Wildsmith 2'
  • yellowcard Max Bird 24'
  • goal Craig Forsyth 45'+3'
  • yellowcard Tom Barkhuizen 59'
  • yellowcard Tyreece John-Jules 71'
  • goal Liam Thompson 81'
  • goal Eiran Cashin 86'
League One Gameweek 3
Derby
Aug 15, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 0 1
FT Pride Park Stadium
Oxford Utd
  • James Collins 27' yellowcard
  • Max Bird 37' yellowcard
  • Conor Hourihane 42' yellowcard
  • Kane Wilson 68' yellowcard
  • Eiran Cashin 82' yellowcard
  • Martyn Waghorn 87' goal
  • goal Mark Harris 32'
  • yellowcard Sam Long 52'
  • goal Mark Harris 72'
  • yellowcard James Beadle 90'+1'
League One Gameweek 36
Oxford Utd
Mar 11, 2023 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 1 2
FT The Kassam Stadium
Derby
  • Sam Long 14' goal
  • Kyle Joseph 90' goal
  • goal Louie Sibley 23'
  • goal Louie Sibley 40'
  • goal Sam Long 61' (OG)

Form Data

Southampton 2 - 1 Derby
Derby 2 - 0 Stoke
Coventry 3 - 2 Derby
Derby 1 - 0 Birmingham
Portsmouth 0 - 1 Derby
Millwall 1 - 0 Derby
Oxford Utd 2 - 0 Watford
Portsmouth 2 - 2 Oxford Utd
Oxford Utd 1 - 1 Hull City
Southampton 2 - 0 Oxford Utd
Oxford Utd 1 - 1 Charlton
Oxford Utd 1 - 0 Blackburn