Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Watford win with a probability of 37.11%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 29.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Watford win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 1-0 (11.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.