Championship

Championship | Gameweek 44

Jul 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff
2 - 1
Derby

Hoilett (17'), Tomlin (59')
Hoilett (62')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Knight (30')

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The Bluebirds are two points above Millwall in sixth spot with two games to play.

Jul 14, 22:12

The Match

Match Report

The Bluebirds remain in the top-six with two games to play.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Championship clash between promotion-chasing rivals Cardiff City and Derby County, including team news and predicted lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff City win with a probability of 41.11%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 32.25% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff City would win this match.

Result
Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
41.11%	26.64%	32.25%

Both teams to score 51.38%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.52%

53.47%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25%

75%

Cardiff City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.37%

25.63%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.48%

60.52%

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.09%

30.91%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.79%

67.2%

Score Analysis

Cardiff City 41.11%

Derby County 32.25%

Draw 26.64%

Cardiff City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 10.78% 2-1 @ 8.62% 2-0 @ 7.34% 3-1 @ 3.91% 3-0 @ 3.33% 3-2 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 1.33% 4-0 @ 1.13% Other @ 2.36% Total : 41.11%	1-1 @ 12.66% 0-0 @ 7.92% 2-2 @ 5.06% Other @ 1% Total : 26.64%	0-1 @ 9.3% 1-2 @ 7.43% 0-2 @ 5.46% 1-3 @ 2.91% 0-3 @ 2.14% 2-3 @ 1.98% Other @ 3.03% Total : 32.25%

Build-up

Derby County goalkeeper Ben Hamer pictured in Championship action on January 31, 2020

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Jul 13, 13:25