Brasileiro Gameweek 15
May 10, 2026 10.30pm
Arena Corinthians

Corinthians vs Sao Paulo - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Corinthians

All competitions
Last game
May 4, 2026 12.30am
Mirassol 2 - 1 Corinthians
Goals scored
10
Top scorer
Matheus Bidu

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Last game
May 3, 2026 8.00pm
Sao Paulo 2 - 2 Bahia
Goals scored
19
Top scorer
Luciano

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Corinthians win with a probability of 43.87%. A draw has a probability of 28.56% and a win for Sao Paulo has a probability of 27.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (13.32%) , while for a Sao Paulo win it is 0-1 (9.5%).

Result

Corinthians 43.87% (+0.44)
Draw 28.56% (+0.27)
Sao Paulo 27.57% (-0.65)

Both Teams to Score: 

46.88% (+0.20)

Goals

Over 1.5 66.93% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 33.07% (+0.03)
Over 2.5 40.74% (+0.21)
Under 2.5 59.26% (-0.21)
Over 3.5 19.24% (-0.21)
Under 3.5 80.76% (+0.21)
Over 4.5 9.57% (-0.15)
Under 4.5 90.43% (+0.15)

First Half Winner

Corinthians 35.09% (+0.65)
Draw 46.21% (-0.18)
Sao Paulo 18.69% (-0.47)

Team To Score First

Corinthians 54.62% (-0.49)
No Goal 10.23% (+0.26)
Sao Paulo 35.15% (+0.22)

Corners

Over 8 62.72% (+0.77)
Equal 8 11.39% (-0.14)
Under 8 25.89% (-0.63)
Over 9 50.61% (+0.86)
Equal 9 12.11% (-0.09)
Under 9 37.28% (-0.77)
Over 10.5 38.88% (+0.86)
Under 10.5 61.12% (-0.86)

Corinthians Goals

Over 1.5 36.92% (+0.45)
Under 1.5 63.08% (-0.45)
Over 2.5 13.56% (+0.34)
Under 2.5 86.44% (-0.33)
Over 3.5 4.04% (+0.07)
Under 3.5 95.96% (-0.08)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5 60.42% (-0.37)
Under 0.5 39.58% (+0.37)
Over 1.5 24.85% (-0.47)
Under 1.5 75.15% (+0.47)
Over 2.5 7.65% (-0.34)
Under 2.5 92.35% (+0.34)
Over 3.5 1.79% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 98.21% (+0.13)

Score analysis

Corinthians 43.87%
Draw 28.55%
Sao Paulo 27.57%
Corinthians
1-0 @ 13.33% (-0.08)
2-1 @ 9.36% (+0.19)
2-0 @ 8.38%
3-0 @ 3.68% (+0.19)
3-1 @ 3.39% (+0.05)
3-2 @ 1.78% (+0.04)
Other @ 3.95% (+0.07)
Total : 43.87%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.32% (-0.03)
0-0 @ 10.23% (+0.26)
2-2 @ 4.24% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.09% (+0.01)
Total : 28.55%
Sao Paulo
0-1 @ 9.5% (-0.10)
1-2 @ 6.69% (+0.03)
0-2 @ 4.49% (-0.21)
1-3 @ 2.03% (-0.13)
0-3 @ 1.78% (+0.02)
2-3 @ 1.38% (-0.11)
Other @ 1.7% (-0.15)
Total : 27.57%

Head to Head

Brasileiro
Nov 20, 2025 10.30pm
3
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 15
Jul 20, 2025 1.00am
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Brasileiro Gameweek 28
Sep 29, 2024 8.00pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Nacional de Brasilia
  • Luis Zubeldia 29' yellowcard
  • Luciano 39' yellowcard
  • Igor Coronado 52' yellowcard
  • Lucas Moura 45'+8' goal
  • Charles 69' yellowcard
  • Robert Arboleda 76' goal
  • Alan Franco 87' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Ferraresi 90'+5' yellowcard
  • Andre Silva 90'+8' goal
  • Jonathan Calleri 90'+8' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Fagner 28'
  • yellowcard Igor Coronado 48'
  • redcard Fagner 45'+5'
  • yellowcard Angel Romero 45'+11'
  • yellowcard Rafinha 64'
  • redcard Andre Ramalho 64'
  • goal Yuri Alberto 83'
  • yellowcard Pedro Henrique 85'
Brasileiro Gameweek 9
Jun 16, 2024 8.00pm
2
2
HT : 2 2
FT Arena Corinthians
  • Antonio Oliveira 22' yellowcard
  • Igor Coronado 31' goal
  • Luciano 42' yellowcard
  • Gustavo Silva 45'+2' goal
  • Caetano 69' yellowcard
  • Caetano 78' redcard
  • Breno Bidon 82' yellowcard
  • goal Lucas Moura 4'
  • yellowcard Young Navarro Moraes 4'
  • yellowcard Diego 21'
  • goal Caca 41' (OG)
  • yellowcard Carlos Miguel 44'
  • yellowcard Lucas Moura 83'
  • yellowcard Alan Franco 90'+1'
Brasileiro Gameweek 25
Sep 30, 2023 10.30pm
2
1
HT : 2 1
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Wellington Rato 24' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Calleri 40' goal
  • Jonathan Calleri 45'+2' goal
  • Jonathan Calleri 45'+3' yellowcard
  • Lucas Beraldo 52' yellowcard
  • Rafinha 55' yellowcard
  • Gabriel Neves 90'+5' yellowcard
  • goal Angel Romero 3'
  • yellowcard Angel Romero 33'
  • yellowcard Gustavo Silva 38'
Copa do Brasil
Aug 16, 2023 11.30pm
2
0
HT : 2 0
FT Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo
  • Wellington Rato 13' goal
  • Lucas Moura 32' goal
  • yellowcard Murillo 68'
  • yellowcard Gil 90'+9'