Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 43.87%. A draw had a probability of 28.56% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.32%) , while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.