Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 64.33%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Vitoria had a probability of 12.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.48%) and 2-1 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%) , while for a Vitoria win it was 0-1 (5.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.