AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 3, 2023 at 1pm UK
BG Stadium

Pathum Utd
2 - 4
Johor Darul

Cardozo (5' pen., 55')
Cardozo (57'), Yooyen (73'), Sergeev (88'), Alvarez (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Aiman (6', 78'), Bergson (14'), Muniz (53')
Muniz (63'), Wan (85')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between BG Pathum United and Johor Darul Ta'zim.

Form, Standings, Stats

BG Pathum United

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Last Game: Ulsan 3-1 Pathum Utd
Tuesday, September 19 at 11am in AFC Champions League
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Johor Darul Ta'zim

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Last Game: Johor Darul 0-1 Kawasaki
Tuesday, September 19 at 1pm in AFC Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Johor Darul Ta'zim win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for BG Pathum United had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Johor Darul Ta'zim win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest BG Pathum United win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Johor Darul Ta'zim would win this match.

Result
BG Pathum UnitedDrawJohor Darul Ta'zim
33.29% (-2.183 -2.18)25.46% (0.161 0.16)41.25% (2.018 2.02)
Both teams to score 55.55% (-1.034 -1.03)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
51.75% (-1.132 -1.13)48.25% (1.129 1.13)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.6% (-1.046 -1.05)70.4% (1.042 1.04)
BG Pathum United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.36% (-1.85 -1.85)27.64% (1.847 1.85)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.82% (-2.437 -2.44)63.18% (2.435 2.44)
Johor Darul Ta'zim Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.77% (0.52000000000001 0.52)23.22% (-0.523 -0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.86% (0.753 0.75)57.13% (-0.756 -0.76)
Score Analysis
    BG Pathum United 33.3%
    Johor Darul Ta'zim 41.25%
    Draw 25.45%
BG Pathum UnitedDrawJohor Darul Ta'zim
1-0 @ 8.26% (-0.045 -0.04)
2-1 @ 7.75% (-0.336 -0.34)
2-0 @ 5.31% (-0.315 -0.32)
3-1 @ 3.32% (-0.331 -0.33)
3-2 @ 2.42% (-0.201 -0.2)
3-0 @ 2.28% (-0.265 -0.27)
4-1 @ 1.07% (-0.169 -0.17)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 33.3%
1-1 @ 12.05% (0.12 0.12)
0-0 @ 6.42% (0.294 0.29)
2-2 @ 5.66% (-0.156 -0.16)
3-3 @ 1.18% (-0.078 -0.08)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 25.45%
0-1 @ 9.37% (0.566 0.57)
1-2 @ 8.8% (0.219 0.22)
0-2 @ 6.84% (0.511 0.51)
1-3 @ 4.28% (0.17 0.17)
0-3 @ 3.33% (0.295 0.3)
2-3 @ 2.75% (-0.032 -0.03)
1-4 @ 1.56% (0.084 0.08)
0-4 @ 1.22% (0.125 0.13)
2-4 @ 1.01% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.09%
Total : 41.25%

How you voted: Pathum Utd vs Johor Darul

BG Pathum United
71.4%
Draw
14.3%
Johor Darul Ta'zim
14.3%
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