Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wellington Phoenix win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Brisbane Roar had a probability of 37.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wellington Phoenix win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Brisbane Roar win was 1-2 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wellington Phoenix would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 37.93% | 24.49% | 37.57% |
| Both teams to score 59.63% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.75% | 43.25% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.35% | 65.64% |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.31% | 22.68% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.66% | 56.33% |
| Brisbane Roar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.13% | 22.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.39% | 56.61% |
| Score Analysis |
| Wellington Phoenix | Draw | Brisbane Roar |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% 1-0 @ 7.7% 2-0 @ 5.71% 3-1 @ 4.17% 3-2 @ 3.07% 3-0 @ 2.82% 4-1 @ 1.55% 4-2 @ 1.14% 4-0 @ 1.05% Other @ 2.31% Total : 37.93% | 1-1 @ 11.35% 2-2 @ 6.21% 0-0 @ 5.19% 3-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.49% | 1-2 @ 8.38% 0-1 @ 7.65% 0-2 @ 5.65% 1-3 @ 4.12% 2-3 @ 3.06% 0-3 @ 2.78% 1-4 @ 1.52% 2-4 @ 1.13% 0-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.27% Total : 37.57% |