Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 46.13%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 30.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.03%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 1-2 (7.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.