Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ilves win with a probability of 47.67%. A win for Vaasan Palloseura had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ilves win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-2 (7.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.75%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ilves would win this match.