Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 60.86%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 17.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.85%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.34%), while for a IFK Mariehamn win it was 1-0 (5.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.