Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Ilves had a probability of 32.66% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Ilves win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.