Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 38%. A win for KuPS had a probability of 35.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest KuPS win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that HJK Helsinki would win this match.