Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vaasan Palloseura win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for IFK Mariehamn had a probability of 33.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vaasan Palloseura win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (6.63%). The likeliest IFK Mariehamn win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vaasan Palloseura would win this match.