Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Togo win with a probability of 52.18%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 18.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Togo win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.98%) and 2-1 (7.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.24%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (9.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.