Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 38.54%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 32.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.9%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (11.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.