Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 82.82%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Sao Tome & Principe had a probability of 4.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 2-0 with a probability of 17.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.8%) and 3-0 (14.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (6.12%), while for a Sao Tome & Principe win it was 0-1 (2.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 17.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match.