Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 11, 2024 at 2pm UK

Nuevo Estadio de Malabo

Eq Guinea
1 - 0
Liberia

Salvador (34' pen.)

FT(HT: 2-0)

Ernest (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Equatorial Guinea and Liberia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Equatorial Guinea

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Madagascar 2-0 Eq Guinea
Monday, November 17 at 2pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: Burkina Faso vs. Eq Guinea
Wednesday, December 24 at 12.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Liberia

Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-1 Liberia
Monday, October 13 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 44.76%. A win for Liberia had a probability of 27.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.75%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest Liberia win was 0-1 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match.

Result
Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Liberia
44.76% ( -0.08)	27.62% ( 0.03)	27.62% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 46.33% (

-0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

41.12% (

-0.06)

58.87% (

0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.63% (

-0.05)

79.37% (

0.05)

Equatorial Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.79% (

-0.07)

26.21% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.7% (

-0.09)

61.3% (

0.09)

Liberia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.78% (

0.01)

37.22% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26% (

0.01)

74% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Equatorial Guinea 44.76%

Liberia 27.62%

Draw 27.62%

Equatorial Guinea	Draw	Liberia
1-0 @ 13.06% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.75% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.9% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.86% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.91% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.04% Total : 44.76%	1-1 @ 12.91% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 4.27% ( -0) Other @ 0.68% Total : 27.62%	0-1 @ 9.64% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.1% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0) Other @ 1.76% Total : 27.62%