Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo City Torque win with a probability of 51.55%. A draw had a probability of 26.58% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 21.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.