Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juventud win with a probability of 43.73%. A draw had a probability of 30.06% and a win for Progreso had a probability of 26.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juventud win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.66%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.9%) , while for a Progreso win it was 0-1 (10.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood.