Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 44.5%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 27.86% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.67%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.