Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 28.24% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
