Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 73.22%. A draw had a probability of 17.09% and a win for Obolon Kyiv had a probability of 9.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.85%) and 3-0 (10.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.68%) , while for a Obolon Kyiv win it was 1-2 (3.33%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.