Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Obolon Kyiv win with a probability of 55.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.49% and a win for SK Poltava had a probability of 19.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Obolon Kyiv win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.01%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%) , while for a SK Poltava win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.