Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metalist Kharkiv win with a probability of 74.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for SK Poltava had a probability of 9.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metalist Kharkiv win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.93%) and 3-0 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.98%) , while for a SK Poltava win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.