Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 55.25%. A draw had a probability of 26.59% and a win for Lazio had a probability of 18.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.45%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.83%) , while for a Lazio win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.