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Serie A | Gameweek 22
Jan 26, 2025 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Parma logo

AC Milan
3 - 2
Parma

Pulisic (38' pen.), Reijnders (90+2'), Chukwueze (90+5')
Pavlovic (12'), Fofana (43')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Cancellieri (24'), Del Prato (80')
Vogliacco (33'), Sohm (37'), Del Prato (45+1'), Haj Mohamed (74'), Hainaut (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Parma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: AC Milan 1-0 Girona
Wednesday, January 22 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Parma 1-1 Venezia
Sunday, January 19 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 3-1 Parma

It may not be straightforward, but Milan should overcome a flawed Parma side that ship plenty of goals - particularly on the road. The Rossoneri will have most of their main men available, and such firepower should see them claim three much-needed points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 74.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Parma had a probability of 9.68%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.47%) and 3-0 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.74%), while for a Parma win it was 0-1 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawParma
74.03% (0.26300000000001 0.26) 16.28% (-0.093 -0.09) 9.68% (-0.165 -0.16)
Both teams to score 47.43% (-0.33 -0.33)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.47% (-0.076999999999998 -0.08)39.53% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.12% (-0.081000000000003 -0.08)61.87% (0.086000000000006 0.09)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.82% (0.043999999999997 0.04)9.18% (-0.039999999999999 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
68.9% (0.101 0.1)31.09% (-0.096 -0.1)
Parma Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.23% (-0.388 -0.39)47.77% (0.393 0.39)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.94% (-0.286 -0.29)83.06% (0.292 0.29)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 74.03%
    Parma 9.68%
    Draw 16.28%
AC MilanDrawParma
2-0 @ 12.5% (0.09 0.09)
1-0 @ 10.47% (0.06 0.06)
3-0 @ 9.96% (0.092000000000001 0.09)
2-1 @ 9.24% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
3-1 @ 7.36% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 5.95% (0.066000000000001 0.07)
4-1 @ 4.39%
5-0 @ 2.84% (0.037 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.72% (-0.035 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.1% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.62% (-0.018 -0.02)
6-0 @ 1.13% (0.017 0.02)
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 74.03%
1-1 @ 7.74% (-0.042 -0.04)
0-0 @ 4.38% (0.017 0.02)
2-2 @ 3.41% (-0.05 -0.05)
Other @ 0.75%
Total : 16.28%
0-1 @ 3.24% (-0.024 -0.02)
1-2 @ 2.86% (-0.048 -0.05)
0-2 @ 1.2% (-0.022 -0.02)
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 9.68%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Parma

AC Milan
77.8%
Draw
16.7%
Parma
5.6%
54
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2024 5.30pm
Gameweek 2
Parma
2-1
AC Milan
Man (2'), Cancellieri (77')
Pulisic (66')
Pavlovic (34'), Emerson (88'), Loftus-Cheek (90+2')
Apr 10, 2021 5pm
Gameweek 30
Parma
1-3
AC Milan
Gagliolo (66')
Bani (10'), Pezzella (37'), Gagliolo (38'), Kucka (64')
Rebic (8'), Kessie (44'), Leao (90+4')
Calhanoglu (24'), Hernandez (78'), Kessie (81'), Meite (90')
Ibrahimovic (60')
Dec 13, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 11
AC Milan
2-2
Parma
Hernandez (58', 90+1')
Hernandez (35'), Calabria (80'), Kalulu (83')
Hernani (13'), Kurtic (56')
Osorio (41'), Iacoponi (65'), Inglese (77')
Jul 15, 2020 6.30pm
Dec 1, 2019 2pm
Gameweek 14
Parma
0-1
AC Milan

Iacoponi (61')
Hernandez (88')
Bennacer (58'), Hernandez (89'), Donnarumma (90')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli24174339172255
2Inter Milan24166258233554
3Atalanta BCAtalanta24155454262850
4Lazio24143745321345
5Juventus241013141212043
6Fiorentina24126641251642
7AC Milan23108535241138
8Bologna2391133527838
9Roma249783529634
10Udinese2486102937-830
11Torino2461082528-328
12Genoa246992233-1127
13CagliariCagliari2466122639-1324
14Lecce2466121841-2324
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2472152653-2723
16Como2457122840-1222
17Empoli2449112235-1321
18Parma2448123044-1420
19VeneziaVenezia2437142239-1716
20Monza2427152139-1813


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