Scottish Championship Gameweek 27
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
McDiarmid Park

St Johnstone vs Ayr United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

St Johnstone

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Feb 24, 2026 7.45pm
Queen's Park 1 - 1 St Johnstone
Goals scored
47
Top scorer
Josh McPake

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.00pm
Ayr 0 - 0 Ross County
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Anton Dowds

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a St Johnstone win with a probability of 59.1%. A draw has a probability of 22.33% and a win for Ayr United has a probability of 18.57%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (10.44%) and 2-0 (10.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.16%) , while for a Ayr United win it is 1-2 (5.2%).

Result

St Johnstone 59.1%
Draw 22.33% (-0.02)
Ayr United 18.57%

Both Teams to Score: 

54.44% (-0.02)

Goals

Over 1.5 78.43% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 21.57% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 55.63% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 44.37% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 32.89% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 67.11% (+0.02)
Over 4.5 19.58% (+0.01)
Under 4.5 80.42% (-0.02)

First Half Winner

St Johnstone 42.18%
Draw 38.55%
Ayr United 19.28%

Team To Score First

St Johnstone 63.06%
No Goal 5.83%
Ayr United 31.11%

Corners

Over 8 62.2%
Equal 8 11.08%
Under 8 26.72%
Over 9 50.49%
Equal 9 11.71%
Under 9 37.8%
Over 10.5 39.18%
Under 10.5 60.82% (-0.01)

St Johnstone Goals

Over 1.5 56.34%
Under 1.5 43.66%
Over 2.5 28.94% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 71.06% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 12.07% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 87.93% (-0.01)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5 55.09%
Under 0.5 44.91%
Over 1.5 23.11% (-0.02)
Under 1.5 76.89% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 6.82% (-0.01)
Under 2.5 93.18% (+0.02)
Over 3.5 1.66% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.34% (-0.01)

Score analysis

St Johnstone 59.12%
Draw 22.33%
Ayr United 18.57%
St Johnstone
1-0 @ 10.74% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 10.44% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 10.05% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 6.36%
3-0 @ 6.26% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 3.22%
Other @ 12.05% (+0.02)
Total : 59.12%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.16% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 5.83%
2-2 @ 5.29%
3-3 @ 1.03% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.02%
Total : 22.33%
Ayr United
1-2 @ 5.2% (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.02% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 2.58% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 1.67%
2-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 1.64% (+0.02)
Total : 18.57%

Head to Head

Scottish Challenge Cup
Feb 17, 2026 7.45pm
3
3
HT : 0 2
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Josh McPake 30' yellowcard
  • J. McPake 30' yellowcard
  • Stevie Mallan 46' yellowcard
  • Kai Fotheringham 46' yellowcard
  • James Gullan 46' yellowcard
  • Jamie Gullan 46' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Svedberg 63' yellowcard
  • J. Svedberg 63' yellowcard
  • Liam Smith 72' yellowcard
  • Liam Smith 89' goal
  • James Gullan 90'+4' goal
  • Jamie Gullan 90'+4' goal
  • James Gullan 90'+4' yellowcard
  • Jamie Gullan 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal George Oakley 15'
  • goal George Oakley 28'
  • yellowcard Nick McAllister 46'
  • yellowcard Nicholas McAllister 46'
  • goal Kevin Holt 47'
  • yellowcard Ethan Walker 75'
  • yellowcard Jude Bonnar 80'
  • yellowcard J. Bonnar 80'
Scottish Championship
Dec 13, 2025 3.00pm
2
4
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Mark McKenzie 8' goal
  • Jamie Murphy 14' goal
  • Anton Dowds 67' yellowcard
  • goal Matty Foulds 47'
  • yellowcard Cheick Diabate 71'
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 74'
  • goal Josh McPake 77'
  • yellowcard Adama Sidibeh 78'
  • goal Josh McPake 87'
  • yellowcard 90'
  • yellowcard Josh McPake 90'
  • goal Kai Fotheringham 90'+2'
Scottish Championship
Oct 4, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish League Cup
Jul 25, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Max Kucheriavyi 43' goal
  • Graham Carey 84' yellowcard
  • Taylor Steven 90'+3' yellowcard
  • T. Steven 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal George Stanger 29'
  • yellowcard Ben Dempsey 35'
  • yellowcard Andy Murdoch 67'
  • yellowcard Nick McAllister 70'
  • goal Ben Dempsey 71'
  • yellowcard Jamie Murphy 73'
Scottish League Cup
Jul 23, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Graham Carey 2' goal
  • yellowcard Finn Ecrepont 77'
Scottish Cup
Feb 8, 2020 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Aaron Drinan 4' goal
  • Aaron Muirhead 23' yellowcard
  • Aaron Muirhead 26' redcard
  • Grant Gillespie 58' yellowcard
  • goal Aaron Muirhead 18' (OG)
  • goal Callum Hendry 27'