Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 56.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Ayr United had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.27%) and 2-0 (10.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%) , while for a Ayr United win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.