Scottish Challenge Cup
Feb 17, 2026 7.45pm
3
3
HT : 0 2
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Josh McPake 30' yellowcard
  • J. McPake 30' yellowcard
  • Stevie Mallan 46' yellowcard
  • Kai Fotheringham 46' yellowcard
  • James Gullan 46' yellowcard
  • Jamie Gullan 46' yellowcard
  • Jonathan Svedberg 63' yellowcard
  • J. Svedberg 63' yellowcard
  • Liam Smith 72' yellowcard
  • Liam Smith 89' goal
  • James Gullan 90'+4' goal
  • Jamie Gullan 90'+4' goal
  • James Gullan 90'+4' yellowcard
  • Jamie Gullan 90'+4' yellowcard
  • goal George Oakley 15'
  • goal George Oakley 28'
  • yellowcard Nick McAllister 46'
  • yellowcard Nicholas McAllister 46'
  • goal Kevin Holt 47'
  • yellowcard Ethan Walker 75'
  • yellowcard Jude Bonnar 80'
  • yellowcard J. Bonnar 80'

St Johnstone vs Ayr United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

St Johnstone

All competitions

Ayr United

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 56.73%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Ayr United had a probability of 20.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.27%) and 2-0 (10.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%) , while for a Ayr United win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.

Result

St Johnstone 56.73% (-1.28)
Draw 23.2% (+0.78)
Ayr United 20.07% (+0.50)

Both Teams to Score: 

49.12% (+0.33)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.65% (+0.42)
Under 1.5 25.35% (-0.42)
Over 2.5 50.99% (+0.61)
Under 2.5 49.01% (-0.61)
Over 3.5 28.05% (+0.04)
Under 3.5 71.95% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 16.6% (-0.04)
Under 4.5 83.4% (+0.05)

First Half Winner

St Johnstone 39.8% (-4.64)
Draw 40.84% (+2.64)
Ayr United 19.36% (+2.00)

Team To Score First

St Johnstone 62.21% (-2.67)
No Goal 7.09%
Ayr United 30.7% (+2.66)

Corners

Over 8 59.35% (+0.89)
Equal 8 11.1% (-0.16)
Under 8 29.54% (-0.75)
Over 9 47.9% (+0.97)
Equal 9 11.45% (-0.08)
Under 9 40.65% (-0.89)
Over 10.5 37.04% (+0.94)
Under 10.5 62.96% (-0.94)

St Johnstone Goals

Over 1.5 51.51% (-0.29)
Under 1.5 48.49% (+0.29)
Over 2.5 25.24% (-0.30)
Under 2.5 74.76% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 10.14% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 89.86% (+0.05)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5 54.4% (+0.86)
Under 0.5 45.6% (-0.86)
Over 1.5 21.8% (+0.77)
Under 1.5 78.2% (-0.77)
Over 2.5 6.62% (+0.54)
Under 2.5 93.38% (-0.55)
Over 3.5 1.74% (+0.12)
Under 3.5 98.26% (-0.11)

Score analysis

St Johnstone 56.73%
Draw 23.19%
Ayr United 20.06%
St Johnstone
1-0 @ 11.94% (-0.47)
2-1 @ 10.27% (+0.09)
2-0 @ 10.14% (-0.33)
3-0 @ 6.35%
3-1 @ 5.3% (-0.24)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.23)
Other @ 10.06% (-0.12)
Total : 56.73%
Draw
1-1 @ 10.73% (+0.23)
0-0 @ 7.09%
2-2 @ 4.51% (+0.25)
Other @ 0.08% (+0.08)
Total : 23.19%
Ayr United
0-1 @ 6.3% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 5.2% (+0.28)
0-2 @ 2.8% (-0.07)
1-3 @ 1.63% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.35% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 1.66% (+0.04)
Total : 20.06%

Head to Head

Scottish Championship
Dec 13, 2025 3.00pm
2
4
HT : 2 0
FT
  • Mark McKenzie 8' goal
  • Jamie Murphy 14' goal
  • Anton Dowds 67' yellowcard
  • goal Matty Foulds 47'
  • yellowcard Cheick Diabate 71'
  • yellowcard Adam Forrester 74'
  • goal Josh McPake 77'
  • yellowcard Adama Sidibeh 78'
  • goal Josh McPake 87'
  • yellowcard 90'
  • yellowcard Josh McPake 90'
  • goal Kai Fotheringham 90'+2'
Scottish Championship
Oct 4, 2025 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish League Cup
Jul 25, 2023 7.45pm
1
2
HT : 1 1
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Max Kucheriavyi 43' goal
  • Graham Carey 84' yellowcard
  • Taylor Steven 90'+3' yellowcard
  • T. Steven 90'+3' yellowcard
  • goal George Stanger 29'
  • yellowcard Ben Dempsey 35'
  • yellowcard Andy Murdoch 67'
  • yellowcard Nick McAllister 70'
  • goal Ben Dempsey 71'
  • yellowcard Jamie Murphy 73'
Scottish League Cup
Jul 23, 2022 3.00pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT McDiarmid Park
  • Graham Carey 2' goal
  • yellowcard Finn Ecrepont 77'
Scottish Cup
Feb 8, 2020 3.00pm
1
2
HT : 1 2
FT
  • Aaron Drinan 4' goal
  • Aaron Muirhead 23' yellowcard
  • Aaron Muirhead 26' redcard
  • Grant Gillespie 58' yellowcard
  • goal Aaron Muirhead 18' (OG)
  • goal Callum Hendry 27'