Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 41.96%. A win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 30.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.55%) and 0-2 (7.84%). The likeliest Greenock Morton win was 1-0 (9.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.