Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for St Johnstone had a probability of 32.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest St Johnstone win was 0-1 (9.14%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.