Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 63.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.19% and a win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 15.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.96%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.07%) , while for a Greenock Morton win it was 0-1 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.