Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 55.32%. A draw had a probability of 24.06% and a win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 20.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.15%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%) , while for a Greenock Morton win it was 0-1 (6.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.