Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Dunfermline Athletic had a probability of 28.16% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Dunfermline Athletic win was 0-1 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.