Scottish Championship Gameweek 28
Mar 7, 2026 3.00pm
Somerset Park

Ayr United vs Dunfermline Athletic - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
Arbroath 1 - 1 Ayr
Goals scored
31
Top scorer
Anton Dowds

Dunfermline Athletic

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
Dunfermline 3 - 0 Ross County
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Kieran Ngwenya

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ayr United win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Dunfermline Athletic had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 26.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ayr United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.44%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Dunfermline Athletic win was 0-1 (7.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result

Ayr United 44.32%
Draw 26.78% (+0.06)
Dunfermline Athletic 28.89% (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.45% (-0.20)

Goals

Over 1.5 74.31% (-0.19)
Under 1.5 25.69% (+0.20)
Over 2.5 49.94% (-0.24)
Under 2.5 50.06% (+0.24)
Over 3.5 27.77% (-0.25)
Under 3.5 72.23% (+0.25)
Over 4.5 15.09% (-0.17)
Under 4.5 84.91% (+0.18)

First Half Winner

Ayr United 33.75%
Draw 42.6%
Dunfermline Athletic 23.64%

Team To Score First

Ayr United 51.75% (-0.04)
No Goal 7.25% (+0.05)
Dunfermline Athletic 41% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 54.06% (-0.04)
Equal 8 11.72% (-0.04)
Under 8 34.22% (+0.09)
Over 9 42.47% (+0.01)
Equal 9 11.59% (-0.06)
Under 9 45.94% (+0.04)
Over 10.5 31.93% (+0.06)
Under 10.5 68.07% (-0.06)

Ayr United Goals

Over 1.5 42.78% (-0.12)
Under 1.5 57.22% (+0.12)
Over 2.5 18.35% (-0.11)
Under 2.5 81.65% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 6.24% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 93.76% (+0.07)

Dunfermline Athletic Goals

Over 0.5 65.03% (-0.16)
Under 0.5 34.97% (+0.15)
Over 1.5 30.59% (-0.22)
Under 1.5 69.41% (+0.21)
Over 2.5 10.78% (-0.15)
Under 2.5 89.22% (+0.15)
Over 3.5 3.15% (-0.06)
Under 3.5 96.85% (+0.05)

Score analysis

Ayr United 44.33%
Draw 26.77%
Dunfermline Athletic 28.88%
Ayr United
1-0 @ 10.51% (+0.04)
2-1 @ 9.44% (+0.02)
2-0 @ 7.39% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 4.49% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.76% (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.7% (-0.03)
Other @ 6.04% (-0.05)
Total : 44.33%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.6% (+0.04)
0-0 @ 7.25% (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.56% (-0.03)
3-3 @ 1.16% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.2% (-0.01)
Total : 26.77%
Dunfermline Athletic
0-1 @ 7.91% (+0.03)
1-2 @ 7.16% (-0.02)
0-2 @ 4.39% (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.63% (-0.05)
2-3 @ 2.04% (-0.03)
0-3 @ 1.8%
Other @ 2.95% (-0.05)
Total : 28.88%

Head to Head

Scottish Championship
Dec 20, 2025 3.00pm
2
3
HT : 0 3
FT
  • Zak Rudden 41' yellowcard
  • Zak Rudden 42' yellowcard
  • Kieran Ngwenya 63' goal
  • Kieran Ngwenya 65' goal
  • Charlie Gilmour 83' yellowcard
  • goal Mark McKenzie 5'
  • goal Anton Dowds 26'
  • yellowcard Stuart Bannigan 30'
  • goal Leon King 45'+4'
Scottish Championship
Nov 1, 2025 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship
Sep 23, 2025 7.45pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 31
Mar 29, 2025 3.00pm
3
0
HT : 1 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Connor McLennan 45' goal
  • Nick McAllister 61' yellowcard
  • Jamie Murphy 68' goal
  • Ethan Walker 90'+5' goal
  • yellowcard Joe Chalmers 81'
  • redcard Victor Wanyama 84'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 21
Jan 14, 2025 7.45pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT East End Park
  • Ewan Otoo 58' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Ben Dempsey 50'
  • goal Jay Henderson 61'
  • goal George Oakley 71'
  • yellowcard Lenny Agbaire 90'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 15
Nov 23, 2024 3.45pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Marco Rus 41' yellowcard
  • Michael Devlin 65' yellowcard
  • Jay Henderson 67' goal
  • Ben Dempsey 77' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kane Ritchie-Hosler 28'
  • yellowcard Craig Clay 36'
  • yellowcard Aaron Comrie 62'
  • yellowcard Ewan Otoo 70'