Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Raith Rovers win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Ayr United had a probability of 30.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Raith Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.08%). The likeliest Ayr United win was 0-1 (8.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.