Scottish Championship Gameweek 25
Mar 3, 2026 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Gayfield Park
  • Ryan Dow 46' yellowcard
  • Harry Cochrane 55' yellowcard
  • Gavin Reilly 67' yellowcard
  • Findlay Marshall 74' goal
  • Dapo Mebude 80' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Ure 61'
  • yellowcard Nicholas McAllister 61'
  • yellowcard J. Bonnar 73'
  • yellowcard Marco Rus 73'
  • yellowcard F. Turley 85'
  • goal Anton Dowds 86'

Arbroath vs Ayr United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Arbroath

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
Partick 0 - 0 Arbroath
Goals scored
34
Top scorer
Findlay Marshall

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 3.00pm
St Johnstone 3 - 1 Ayr
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Anton Dowds

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 50.2%. A draw had a probability of 25.04% and a win for Ayr United had a probability of 24.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arbroath win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.77%) , while for a Ayr United win it was 0-1 (6.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.

Result

Arbroath 50.2% (+0.24)
Draw 25.04% (-0.42)
Ayr United 24.71% (+0.14)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.26% (-0.27)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.99% (+0.69)
Under 1.5 23.01% (-0.69)
Over 2.5 53.47% (+0.80)
Under 2.5 46.53% (-0.80)
Over 3.5 31.18% (+0.50)
Under 3.5 68.82% (-0.50)
Over 4.5 17.82% (+0.65)
Under 4.5 82.18% (-0.64)

First Half Winner

Arbroath 35.72% (-0.90)
Draw 42.28%
Ayr United 22% (+0.90)

Team To Score First

Arbroath 57.02% (-0.13)
No Goal 6.24% (-0.40)
Ayr United 36.74% (+0.54)

Corners

Over 8 54.56% (-2.24)
Equal 8 11.69% (-0.14)
Under 8 33.74% (+2.37)
Over 9 42.95% (-1.90)
Equal 9 11.62% (-0.35)
Under 9 45.44% (+2.24)
Over 10.5 32.34% (-1.43)
Under 10.5 67.66% (+1.43)

Arbroath Goals

Over 1.5 48.92% (+0.52)
Under 1.5 51.08% (-0.52)
Over 2.5 23.13% (+0.49)
Under 2.5 76.87% (-0.49)
Over 3.5 8.75% (+0.43)
Under 3.5 91.25% (-0.44)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5 62.02% (+0.28)
Under 0.5 37.98% (-0.28)
Over 1.5 28.54% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 71.46% (-0.14)
Over 2.5 9.71% (+0.42)
Under 2.5 90.29% (-0.41)
Over 3.5 2.85% (+0.27)
Under 3.5 97.15% (-0.26)

Score analysis

Arbroath 50.21%
Draw 25.04%
Ayr United 24.7%
Arbroath
1-0 @ 10.31% (-0.29)
2-1 @ 9.93% (+0.17)
2-0 @ 8.19% (+0.02)
3-1 @ 5.37% (+0.03)
3-0 @ 4.61%
3-2 @ 3.22% (-0.03)
Other @ 8.58% (+0.35)
Total : 50.21%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.77%
0-0 @ 6.24% (-0.40)
2-2 @ 5.68% (-0.17)
3-3 @ 1.18% (+0.06)
Other @ 0.17% (+0.09)
Total : 25.04%
Ayr United
0-1 @ 6.41% (-0.05)
1-2 @ 6.38% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 3.55% (-0.16)
1-3 @ 2.31%
2-3 @ 1.99% (-0.02)
0-3 @ 1.38% (+0.10)
Other @ 2.68% (+0.19)
Total : 24.7%

Head to Head

Scottish Championship
Nov 15, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 1
Aug 1, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish League Cup
Jul 19, 2025 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 33
Apr 13, 2024 3.00pm
5
0
HT : 3 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Kurt Willoughby 24' goal
  • Frankie Musonda 32' goal
  • Anton Dowds 41' goal
  • Ben Dempsey 68' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 90' goal
  • yellowcard David Gold 27'
  • yellowcard Leighton McIntosh 59'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 14
Jan 23, 2024 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Ben Dempsey 74' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 77' goal
  • Roy Syla 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Robinson 42'
  • yellowcard Colin Hamilton 55'
  • yellowcard Keaghan Jacobs 63'
  • yellowcard Scott Stewart 63'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 21
Jan 13, 2024 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Gayfield Park
  • Leighton McIntosh 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paddy Reading 41'
  • yellowcard Jack Young 88'