Scottish Championship Gameweek 25
Feb 14, 2026 3.00pm
Gayfield Park

Arbroath vs Ayr United - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Arbroath

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.00pm
Queen's Park 0 - 0 Arbroath
Goals scored
28
Top scorer
Brooklyn Kabongolo

Ayr United

All competitions
Scottish Championship
Last game
Jan 31, 2026 3.00pm
Ayr 0 - 0 Raith Rovers
Goals scored
26
Top scorer
Mark McKenzie

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Arbroath win with a probability of 44.82%. A win for Ayr United has a probability of 29.23% and a draw has a probability of 26.01%.

The most likely scoreline for a Arbroath win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Ayr United win is 0-1 (8.73%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.48%).

Result

Arbroath 44.82% (-0.15)
Draw 26.01% (+0.12)
Ayr United 29.23% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.57% (-0.47)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.46% (-0.29)
Under 1.5 28.54% (+0.28)
Over 2.5 46.19% (-0.43)
Under 2.5 53.81% (+0.43)
Over 3.5 24.94% (-0.46)
Under 3.5 75.06% (+0.47)
Over 4.5 13.02% (-0.30)
Under 4.5 86.98% (+0.30)

First Half Winner

Arbroath 33.57% (+0.03)
Draw 42.14% (-0.18)
Ayr United 24.3% (+0.18)

Team To Score First

Arbroath 52.99% (-0.08)
No Goal 8.03% (+0.10)
Ayr United 38.98% (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 54.12% (+0.03)
Equal 8 12.15% (+0.01)
Under 8 33.73% (-0.04)
Over 9 42.07% (+0.01)
Equal 9 12.04% (+0.01)
Under 9 45.88% (-0.03)
Over 10.5 31.16%
Under 10.5 68.84%

Arbroath Goals

Over 1.5 40.4% (-0.38)
Under 1.5 59.6% (+0.38)
Over 2.5 16.31% (-0.31)
Under 2.5 83.69% (+0.30)
Over 3.5 5.24% (-0.13)
Under 3.5 94.76% (+0.14)

Ayr United Goals

Over 0.5 63.62% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 36.38% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 28.59% (-0.24)
Under 1.5 71.41% (+0.24)
Over 2.5 9.27% (-0.06)
Under 2.5 90.73% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 2.71% (-0.07)
Under 3.5 97.29% (+0.08)

Score analysis

Arbroath 44.81%
Draw 26.03%
Ayr United 29.23%
Arbroath
1-0 @ 11.85% (+0.09)
2-1 @ 9.4% (+0.05)
2-0 @ 7.85% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 4.42% (-0.08)
3-0 @ 3.49% (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.57% (-0.08)
Other @ 5.23% (-0.13)
Total : 44.81%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.48% (+0.15)
0-0 @ 8.03% (+0.10)
2-2 @ 4.92% (-0.10)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 26.03%
Ayr United
0-1 @ 8.73% (+0.09)
1-2 @ 6.91% (-0.05)
0-2 @ 4.92% (+0.02)
1-3 @ 2.6%
2-3 @ 1.92%
0-3 @ 1.45% (+0.05)
Other @ 2.7% (-0.07)
Total : 29.23%

Head to Head

Scottish Championship
Nov 15, 2025 3.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 1
Aug 1, 2025 7.45pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish League Cup
Jul 19, 2025 3.00pm
4
0
HT : 0 0
FT
Scottish Championship Gameweek 33
Apr 13, 2024 3.00pm
5
0
HT : 3 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Kurt Willoughby 24' goal
  • Frankie Musonda 32' goal
  • Anton Dowds 41' goal
  • Ben Dempsey 68' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 90' goal
  • yellowcard David Gold 27'
  • yellowcard Leighton McIntosh 59'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 14
Jan 23, 2024 7.45pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Somerset Park
  • Ben Dempsey 74' goal
  • Logan Chalmers 77' goal
  • Roy Syla 78' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kyle Robinson 42'
  • yellowcard Colin Hamilton 55'
  • yellowcard Keaghan Jacobs 63'
  • yellowcard Scott Stewart 63'
Scottish Championship Gameweek 21
Jan 13, 2024 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Gayfield Park
  • Leighton McIntosh 90'+6' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Paddy Reading 41'
  • yellowcard Jack Young 88'