Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Airdrieonians win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 33.37% and a draw had a probability of 27.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Airdrieonians win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.72%). The likeliest Greenock Morton win was 0-1 (8.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.