Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 52.06%. A draw had a probability of 24.43% and a win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 23.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.46%) , while for a Spartak Moscow win it was 0-1 (6.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.