Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 40.5%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 33.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 (8.94%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.