Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CSKA Moscow win with a probability of 40.89%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 32.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a CSKA Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 (8.35%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.