Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 59%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Yelimay Semey had a probability of 18.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%) , while for a Yelimay Semey win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.