Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 42.55%. A draw had a probability of 29.68% and a win for Zenit St Petersburg had a probability of 27.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.7%) , while for a Zenit St Petersburg win it was 0-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.